Public will push odds to the limit

by Jimmy Vaccaro (Twitter @JimmyVaccaro)
July 13, 2010 

Well, put your vuvuzelas away since it is time to push on.

Perhaps the most intriguing component of sports betting is that there is always a new twist. There is always a new topic which in turn always leads to a number that is thrown around, even before the first person steps to the window to try on the "new pair of shoes."

LeBron "what’s-his-number-now" James has opened Pandora’s box for us to utilize in the upcoming months. But we will do as we always have in the past: post a number and let the market decide in time the new power rating for the Miami Heat and, yes, the Cleveland Cavs.

Off the top of my aging dome you’re looking at a 7 or 8 point adjustment. No matter what we start with, I believe it will go up until the team comes back to the number.

It may take a week or it may take a season but it will get there.

But these adjustments come faster than ever before because the masses "glomb" onto a team and push it much more than it should be pushed.

But as long as they are collecting, the number will have no consequence.

I believe it was the 2007 NFL season when all you had to do to win a 4-teamer was this – wake up around 9 a.m. on a Sunday morning, kiss your wife then go to the nearest book and do the following. "Give me the Pats and over with the Colts," then pick a late game and all you had to worry about was the late game as the first three picks were like a slam dunk.

This continued almost halfway through the season.

I believe the calamity stopped when the Eagles were a 22 point underdog and the game ended 31-28. From that point the books got all their money and more over the remainder of the season.

It was rough for a while but this exercise only points out: ride the "bad number," taking only until it sinks your parlay once, because the numbers will play out to form.

There is more number chasing now than ever before because in some strange way, it plays into the culture of today.

I can only imagine the amount of people who were watching ESPN this last week and the uninformed kept showing odds from the MGM and talking about season win totals and anything that connected to this changing of the guard.

The point being is the uninformed were talking to millions of people with their same mindset but never attached a number to a game, as both you and I know, that is the key to opening Solomon’s mine.

But it is both good and bad, but mostly good. Yes, there will be times such as the 2007 season that show you just don’t miss the kick off and you will cash a ticket. But it will lead you to a spot you do not want to be by Thanksgiving.

Everything has a beginning, a middle and an end. The Heat, barring any major injury, will be a very good team and could be having a parade in South Beach in about a year. But winning and covering are two different stories.

When I sit here and think about it, though, I will change no one’s mind and I really shouldn’t. But I can tell you in July that besides the Lakers, the Heat will be the second bet team in parlays for the upcoming season.

It is just human nature, and human nature is what the bookmakers have going for them. We put up the Heat win total at 62½ and have written about $1,000 so far, with the biggest bet being $50; and you can imagine which way they bet.

We also put up a prop on giving LeBron two years to win a ring: yes -200 and no +175.

It looks like the Lakers will host the Heat on Christmas day. Look for Kobe to come about 2 over LBJ.

One more thing: will LBJ throw sand up in the air now, instead of powder?

It sounds like a pick ’em prop to me.

Take care,
Jimmy V.